This does not look complete. At best we have 1-2-3 and are now doing 4, at the worst this is a 1-2. 1-2 sequence that has a way to go yet. Stay tuned.
Year: 2010
HXU and HXD, 2x up or down the TSX
These leveraged Horizons Betapro vehicles are fairly simple, you do not lose on futures roll-overs as no futures are used and consequently you do not suffer the debilitating effects of a commodity in contango (such as in HNU). They are straight vanilla no nonsense tools that go 2x as fast as the underlying TSX. There are many of these, Google ‘direxion’ and at least 2 dozen come up that are leveraged up to 3x.
I like to look at both the up and the down as they should mirror each other and, if done correctly one can theoretically make a living just alternating between the two. Here they are;
Before being let go at RBC (I am being polite) I had every single client of mine with a standing order to buy HXU at $8. They would have doubled their money. At the 62% retracement the HXD should have been bought. It is difficult to get it exactly right but the beauty is that even if the market runs against you, the sensitivity is quite low, whereas if it goes your way it really goes. It could well be that the market has another leg up , but if you are convinced that there will be a bigger one down, either now or later, this is an ideal investment if used in moderation. The SDS does the same for the US S&P (in US$) or as HSD (in Can $). Remember that you are not trying to catch the 30% movement, instead you are aiming for at least 100%
F, update from Aug 26.
On the left is the chart from August 27th with the green pattern as the most “’elegant” possibility. This based on the EW probability of corrective waves returning to the 4th wave of previous degree, seen here in a big chart picture.
The count is probable incorrect as there is likely a 4-5,4-5 series at the end but that does not matter here. $17 (or so) is the ideal target. The actual high was $17.42, a little above the $17 I mentioned as the max.This is possible if a triangle did occur! I suspect the stock is rising in sympathy with the GM IPO but the why of it is not entirely clear. There was a little gap just above $15 and both the RSI and MACD are turning. I would definitely stand aside here and brood on why I had not bought a truckload of this stuff. Click on charts to enlarge and move them around.
BP, British Petroleum
Have not even looked at this one for a while. The former CEO’s comments yesterday reminded me. Last time, on July 16th I opined that the stock should not trade below $34 and that a reasonable target would be about $47. We got to $44, give or take, and I would sell here and just watch what happens next. This stock could be in a new bull market but unfortunately the action from the lows looks a lot more corrective than impulsive. Here is the chart.
Apart from the less than promising EW pattern, the RSI and MACD are turning down.
See also May 27th blog!