It has taken a long time, and a little higher than expected, but the process is starting. I forgot to post this one a few days ago, so here it is belatedly.
Year: 2010
DJI Dow Jones, May 8, 2010
We all knew that the TSE, Dax etc. etc. were at or nearing their respective 61.8% retracement levels and that therefore chances were pretty high that we could see the start of the renewal of this bear market. Little did anyone anticipate 1000 points ,almost in an hour or so, in what undoubtedly must have been one of the wildest rides ever. There were clouds in the sky, Greece, Portugal, Spain and the elections in the UK, but as the chief economist of one of the major Canadian banks so insightfully commented that he did not understand what Greece had to do with the Canadian stock market. With such a display of blatant ignorance one wonders why we listen to such back-water talking heads. Anyway the search is still on for what caused all of this, fat fingers, pressing the B instead of the M button, computer driven momentum trading and so on and so forth. The real explanation is that nothing out of the ordinary happened, the market simple followed EW patterns as becomes clear with a quick glance at the chart of the Dow Jones Industrials Average index, see below.
This is a 5 day chart that shows the recent high but may have missed some of the extremes, some of which have been cancelled. Clearly we were in a third wave as this event happened and are now about to do wave e of a triangle after which we should drop about 400 points to finish 3 with 4 and 5 still to go after that. The whole thing would probable be just minor wave 1 of 3 of C! Similar patterns are evident in other markets
TRE, Sino Forest Corp. May 8, 2010
This may be a good harbinger of what may happen in the not too distant future. This stock , like so many others (Open Text for instance) has had its technicals deteriorate for quite some time now, also it had reached and even marginally exceeded a logical (the top of wave b in an a-b-c that forms wave A). From here on a reasonable expectation may be that we are seeing a hugh flat formation forming in which the A and b legs are complete and now C has started. If this is correct expect the stock to trade at a few dollars sometime in 2011.
TSE , DAX and S&P
Today the TSE traded at or above the 12135 level consistently for the first time. This is the level that we mentioned, now more than a year ago, as a very good possibility for a retracement. I myself did not have the patience to wait this long, expecting the whole thing to take about half as much time as it has, so it is not clearly something that one could have traded to the fullest, after all after 50% who really knows. Now that we are here probabilities are turning to the negative, which is not to say that the market cannot go (a lot?) higher, but that the likelihood of that happening is very low.
Further more its is interesting to note that not just the TSE but also the DAX and the S&P are, roughly speaking, at the very same spot right at this time. We are talking indexes, not individual stocks so some discretion is required but the conclusion should be to sell just about everything!
Remember, you can enlarge these charts by clicking on them and you can then put them side by side if you wish.