Year: 2010

SC, Shoppers once again!

Hamilton

There are not many stocks that allow for a bullish outlook; this one does so it is worth repeating particularly since there were a number of commentators on BNN who were downright bearish on the stock which is already down about 40% from the highs.

SC March 26, 2010

The stock is down a few dollars since the previous comment but the overall picture remains quite constructive. The stock should not drop much below $34, if that. Just closing the gap would retrace it to about $42, up about 23 %. Of course higher levels are quite possible as shown. The only part that cautions against an overly aggressive position would be the market overall which could become very bearish.

TSE, March 26, 2010

Hamilton

Obviously not a triangle!

TSE March 26 2010 DJIA March 26 2010

The TSE did not follow the expected script, so the triangle is definitely out, also we have now retraced a respectable 50% on the TSE and are overlapping previous downlegs which could mean that the entire thing is over ending a very simple a-b-c down flat correction.However it is not entirely clear how this would fit the bigger picture. Looking at the DOW for comparison purposes this is not yet the case and a variety of bearish scenarios are still valid. One thing is clear and that is that the TSE is more volatile than even the DOW

   It might help to also look at the Canadian dollar (against the US). A few weeks ago everybody and their brother and uncle simple knew that the Can. $ would go up and could reach 1.10 or even 1.20 easily. The obvious part , at the time, was that it was a very crowded trade and therefore did not work, in fact the dollar lost 7+ cents in an equal number of days,  pretty well repeating what it had done a week or so earlier. Here is the chart.

Can Dollar , March 26, 2010

Notice that this too (for the moment) looks like a simple flat correction a-b-c with a 3-3-5 structure. Again it is a little difficult to fit this in the bigger picture!, so the situation is that we remain bearish but with a little more caution.

TSE update

Hamilton

TSE May 24 2010

Due to the holiday in Canada the chart skips a day so the anticipated 4th wave triangle is a little harder to discern. Anyway, for the moment it looks like today’s 250 or so point decline at the open , followed be an almost flat close for the day is wave c of the triangle, d and e still to follow. After that wave 5 should take the TSE to about 11000 or so and that MIGHT then conclude this specific leg. however it is not clear at all what the exact degree of this wave is , other than that it is not a bottom!

TSE update, so far so good

Hamilton

tse may 21 2 2010

We went right back to the upper trend-line, no big surprise after 1000 points. However, within wave 3 wave 2 was a zig-zag as was the wave 2 of the entire structure once complete so, no matter how you count it chances are pretty good that the zig-zag in todays trading is just a part of an incomplete pattern which, in all likely hood will ultimately take the shape of either a “flat”, or a “triangle”. Todays action would just be the a wave of an a-b-c or of an a-b-c-d-e (as shown). This triangle measures about 300 points which would imply that once this 3d leg is complete we will be just above 11000. Then another 4 and 5 to complete this wave that started at 12200. Then another 4 and 5 to complete wave 1 of C.

    The above count is very tentative. Very often a series of 1-2 waves starts an initial move and things just keep going, also the degree in the above analysis may be incorrect, but these are just minimum targets!, things can get a lot worse.