DJIA Update

Before I give up on this, here is an update on the Dow Jones.

djia aug 2010

As the DAX may make a new high any moment, negating much of the bearish scenario, the DJIA is still OK. Previously I mentioned 10625 as the 61.8% retracement level, which would be correct (10627 to be exact) if the second low applied. However , if the second low is used the precise number is 10695, just 30 points or so from today’s highs. Going beyond that is always possible without necessarily negating the outlook, but it would certainly undermine any confidence.

Cl Colgate Palmolive

cl Jan 2010 2 CL July 2010

In January we suggested this one might have topped, sofar that was correct as the stock never traded higher. Recently it is dropping like the proverbial stone, that it does so is not amazing, that it stayed up for another 1/2 year is. Perhaps it has started its correction for real in which case this one has a long way to go. To see the previous comments go to the index at the top of the website, it will give all entries by ticker, there is only one other for CL.

AZO

azo july 28

So $213 is about it as far as I am concerned, the count (not shown this time but see previous blog) as well as the RSI and MACD have probable topped. There are options on this stock. This one should drop to about $170 is a few months and possible a lot further thereafter.

DJIA Update

S&P July 28 2010

Just a quick update. The red and purple possibilities shown earlier on either the Dow Jones or the S&P are both in the running (the blue one is dead). Essentially this cannot any longer be a series of 1-2s considering the overlaps, but depending how wave one down occured we could be looking at a big  a-b-c counter trend correction (red) in which the c wave is becoming a wedge (which has to be 5 –waves). In the purple scenario wave one is at least a month longer in duration and the a-b-c correction correspondingly shorter. Here the c wave also need 5 subdivisions. So , in both these scenarios we should top out soon. 10625 , or thereabouts is a good target as it represents a 62% retracement (more or less) for both waves one. Given the proximity of the month end etc.etc. the possibility that we already reached the high should not be excluded!

The DAX is just a hundred points from its all time high. Perhaps the recent drop in the level of the Euro has made this country’s economy that much more attractive (they are at least untill recently, the worlds largest exporter) . Others, like the FTSE or the STOX50 and many others are similar to the DJIA