Wrong on DLTR so far by a few dollars. The error was in the count. This has an extended 3d wave which often means that the first and fifth was will turn out to be almost equal (see blue arrows). Should that be the case the stock is definitely a short at about $50 if not earlier.
The RSI and perhaps also the MACD are not confirming the new highs.
On Feb. 15 we recommended getting out of this stock at about a dollar or so above where it was then trading and certainly at the $35.50 double top level. Here is today’s chart;
Had you followed the recommendation, you would have potentially missed a single dollar! Since then it has struggled to get back up there but sofar without quite making it. If the fact that the stock is trading at about the same level when oil was at $147+, is not enough, consider that the past 6 months the stock has traced out a pretty clean wedge, diagonal, rising flag, or pennant. Not good.
Next we should get wave 3 down OR, if this all turns out to be just an A-B-C, a wave C. Either way back to 28 or lower. Enbridge falls in the same “too good to be true”category. Of course one of its main businesses is the distribution of natural gas .
So far so good on this one. Seems to be working but beyond the $27,50 not at all sure what will happen. Here is why.
The overall market could soon be in trouble. If so oil is not going to go up regardless of peak-oil etc.etc. Already all oil has done for more that the past year is twirl around $75 or so. Suncorp., now one of our larger energy companies, is even more uneventful.
Clearly it has been “triangulating” around, more or less, $33 for the better part of the last year. Usually these patterns resolve themselves in the preceding direction (which is why they are called continuation patterns ); in this case that is down. XOM, Exxon also seems to be going down whereas Royal Dutch has been up a little. The picture is muddy so , once again, When in doubt, stay out.
For those not entirely comfortable with EW, here is the World in a stylized format;
This is the basis for a serious bear market, waves 4 and 5 are not even shown but the point is that the DOW could end below 1000. Time will tell.