Clearly a new high today, higher than in April by 10.20 points but nevertheless higher. Perhaps the wedge is operative, we will see.
I have had a look at the Hang Seng index, the Shanghai index , the Bovespa, the Swiss MSI, the Dutch AEX, the FTSE, the Australian all ordinaries , the Dax (that did make a brief new high weeks ago) and a half dozen other stock market indexes. We are the only one making a new high today!! Not sure why.
As per today’s high the correction is perfectly symmetric, the C leg is vector equal to the A leg. It is also a mere 40 points below the April highs. Both the MACD and RSI seem to be topping .For the immediate bear scenario it cannot really go any higher. Should it do so, then I would suggest the wedge is operative and the top should then be formed a little higher but under 12500.
This stock has, as expected, done exceptionally well. In the last comment , done in Febr. of this year, I mentioned a second leg down was required before the stock would go up again. We did get that second leg down as part of an irregular flat and did make new lows but not quite to the level of $11 as it only managed $13. Did not look at it again until today;
The RSI is right up there with the MACD and most importantly we are at the trend-line. This COULD be 5 waves up but the last leg may still extend after a pause. To be prudent I would sell here even recognizing that the stock could still go much higher. As the longer term chart indicates, these mining stocks have their season,see below.
To elaborate on the previous blog; the big pause in Citybank may have been a 2 year triangle, in the case of the TSE it may be a simple A-B-C as in the blue or red labelling. The May, June and July drop was most certainly not a text book 5-wave and could have been a C wave in its entirety or a whole correction. If that were the case then we should now be looking at a wedge up, specifically we are in wave 4 of the wedge. Under this scenario a new high might be possible above the old one of 12321 but probable no higher than 12500.
I do not give much credit to this scenario but mention it only to point out that even if a new high is made, the next stop is not necessarily the moon. This scenario, by the way, does not fit the US markets and many others.