Before I give up on this, here is an update on the Dow Jones.
As the DAX may make a new high any moment, negating much of the bearish scenario, the DJIA is still OK. Previously I mentioned 10625 as the 61.8% retracement level, which would be correct (10627 to be exact) if the second low applied. However , if the second low is used the precise number is 10695, just 30 points or so from today’s highs. Going beyond that is always possible without necessarily negating the outlook, but it would certainly undermine any confidence.