The stock did briefly get to $52 and even if there still is a very small possibility that the stock has not yet completed its “thrust” from the triangle this is a short as the stock should trade back to at the very least the apex (about $40), and more likely to the lowest point in the triangle (about $35). The technical indicators are already trending down.
Toyota is acting to form, assuming this is a correction (it may in fact be a new bull market), simple because that is the least aggressive assumption, one would expect an a-b-c up which is exactly what is happening. The target remains around the $80/82 level. c=a, 50% retracement, wave 4 of previous degree etc. etc., do not be surprised if it reaches the higher end of this range.
We commented on this one on Feb 15 when the stock was at about $6.20. It reported earnings that were not at all bad and now is trading at $8.20 +, perhaps this time about 30% is enough, however , the stock will go higher. The exact count escapes me but I assume we had a 1-2, 1-2 to start the 08/09 drop and consequently there would be a 4-5, 4-5 to finish it of. That leaves us with , at a minimum , an incomplete a-b-c up, usually to the 4th wave and about 38%, neither of which has yet happened. Also there is a gap at about $7.40; these occur often in the middle. Here are the charts.
$10 is probable worth waiting for, $16 is posssible but do use a trailing stop-loss order.
By the way, I read that RBC DS has become extraordinary bullish on Bombardier. About time considering that this is the infrastructure stock par excellence.
We have had some fun with this one before. I do not normally recommend the purchase of a fata morgana at any price, however, for those that are disciplined this may provide an interesting opportunity. Here is the chart;
For almost a year this one has been going sideways, and as the saying goes, “do not sell a dull market”. Now maybe I am seeing things that are not really there, but it sure could be a very nice triangle which would then imply another, similar , leg up with a target around $22 or so. That this is not entirely a pipe dream I have added the long-term chart, below.
Remember that you are buying real estate, in the middle of the desert, and hoping that the gambling proceeds will pay the rent. Clearly not for everybody so discipline is required. Either use options and/or place a stop-loss at $9. At roughly $11 right now the risk /reward profile is a pretty attractive one of $11 up against $2 down.