Month: February 2010

AGU, Feb 2010

Hamilton

AGU and also POT and MOS with it have continued to drop and at least as far as Agrium is concerned the outlook does not look good. The stock dropped below the $61 level and this is a sure fire indication that the a-b-c perfectly symmetrical correction is over. The overlap with previous high points argues that the stock will go further down, most likely to new lows. See previous comments.

AGU Feb 2010

Mosaic has already overlapped and was not able to retrace to the 50%+ level at all and therefore looks even more fragile. Potash (not shown) is somewhere in between but also a sell.

MOS feb 2010

RMD Feb 2010, RESMED

Hamilton

This company has a solution for sleep apnea, a problem often associated with snoring that causes the breathing to be interrupted, sometimes so often that it reduces the quality of sleep to the point where the patient is constantly tired, and displays rather irrational behavior in some cases. The solution Resmed has , is a little machine that ups the pressure by way of a mask that has the effect of keeping the nostrils open (I think). Supposedly some 20% of men over a certain age suffer from this affliction to some extent.  RMD and its competitor, Phillips (medical systems) only have about 10% of patients sold on the product, a major problem is that nobody wants to own up to snoring. Anyway, this works and the market is a long way from its saturation point. Here are the charts.

RMD Feb 2010 2 RMD Feb 2010

The stock has just “double topped” at around $55, it may well go a little higher to the upper trendline somewhere around $63 but if the EW count is correct it will not do so. Again risk /reward favors a sell at these levels or just slightly higher  – pick your level between 55 and 63 – for a probable target near $30. The count shown is just a wild guess between a big B-wave or a 5th, either way $30 should soon be next.

BPO, Brookfield Properties, Feb 2010

Hamilton

BPO March 31

On March 31 ,2008 BPO was first mentioned as a buy for the very simple reason that the RSI and MACD had been rising for quite some time without the stock doing so (see above chart).

From , more or less, that point the stock started its ascend and to this day has not stopped (see charts below).

BPO Feb 2010 2 BPO Feb 2010

This company is part of the former Brascan conglomerate and related to the Asset Management arm that goes by the ticker PAM.A on Toronto. Properties is actually a US company. It saw its net income tumble by 60% last week when it reported its most recent earnings. Its top line , however, increased slightly while occupancy rates (the achilles  heel of this industry) declined as a result of additions to the portfolio. As essentially these operations consist of bricks and mortar on the asset side against debt on the liability side (even if equity is high) the perception if not reality is that these companies are very sensitive to interest rates.

   Relative to where it has been this one could go higher, however, from here on the risk/reward becomes decidedly less attractive. If you still own it use a trailing stop to safeguard your 250% gain.

TSE Feb 6 2010.

Hamilton

TSE Feb4 2010 TSE feb 6 2010

The original idea that this may develop as a b-wave, as shown yesterday, may not be correct. B-waves are 3-waves not 5-waves and unless I am blind this is a 5-wave move. Ergo the possibility has to be entertained that this is wave one of the next leg (a small 3d wave.) If correct there is just a little more upside on Monday as we now have seen so often and then a virtual crash for the next leg. This is very tricky but very possible!