TED SPREAD, Corp. Bonds etc. etc.

Back in the good old days we would all listen to Henry Kaufman and his deliberations on the bond markets, sit on the edge of our chairs to hear the growth in M1 (later other Ms), listen to capacity utilization or , last in vogue, the TED spread. I do not remember why it was called that but  it represents the  spread between 3-month Treasuries and 3-month interbank lending rates as quoted in London. It was then ,and is now, a good gauge for the liquidity in lending and by extension the interest differential between government and banks. Here is the chart.

TED SPREAD SHORT TED SPREAD LONG

Notice how the recent travails of the banks gave rise to a spread of (only) 450 basis points or 4.5% That is a lot less than the spreads back in 1980 of almost 6%. This spread works its way all the way down the food chain and widens considerable when you compare corporate AAA bonds with lesser credits like Baa bonds. See below;

CORP BOND YIELD AAA CORP BOND YIELD BAA

On the left is AAA and on the right Baa, both are still investment grade.  Now if you look closely, you will see (click on the charts to enlarge and move one above the other). I cannot get a good junk bond chart but it had a spread of 22% recently. The point here is that if you buy any bond , or bond ETF, even slightly below government quality, you very quickly can get into big trouble. At one point recently junk-bonds were trading at 22% above AAA and have come down to close that gap almost entirely (now about 4%). To me this is a very crowded trade to be avoided because it is now too late!

AGU again, Feb 8 2010.

Just a quick update on Agrium. The stock reported much better earnings than they “guided” a few months ago and in the euphoria of the moment the stock is up nicely. Here is the chart;

AGU Feb 8 2010

Up a few dollars so far on the day. Here is the rub; the reported earnings of 53 cents a share was down from 79 cents last year but that was an unusual year. Conveniently losses due to hedges on natural gas would have reduced the above profit by 17 cents a share. By the same logic the stock-based compensation also reduced earnings by 17 cents a share. Both of this miraculously are considered one time items – go figure are not hedges part of your operations and compensation? –this is like the consumer price index without food and energy! Anyway you treat these items as operational you have an income for the quarter of 53 – 17 – 17 = 19 cents for the quarter or 24% of last years. This time they guided more positively, maybe that accounts for the temporary rise in the stock.

TSE update Feb 8, 2010.

TSE Feb 8 2010 DJIA

This gets pretty tricky as quite a few possibilities exist for the TSE (does not matter for the overall direction). The idea of a large a-b-c correction has to be discarded on the grounds that the b-wave has 5-waves internally and that just cannot be, so the preference at this stage goes to a 1-2, 1-2 scenario, which makes a lot more sense if you look at the Dow Jones (and the S&P, not shown), on the right. Today’s stellar performance supposedly has something to do with Mr. Trichet, the head of the European central bank, getting on a plane on his way to “solve” the Greek problem – a news bite that nobody yet knows what it means and presumable could be reversed on equally flimsy grounds.