It is difficult to rhyme the S&P with the TSE, they seemed to be a little out of phase with each other. In the S&P the last leg down looks more like a new wave down whereas in the TSE the idea of a B-wave seems more plausible regardless of the appearance of 5-waves down, Certainly the possibility of the action over the last few days being a wedge (has to be a c ) would make that imperative. Even so the wedge may be a simple a-b-c as well so I would not dwell too long on this. Here the important thing is that whatever the pattern in either the S&P or the TSE, we are at the cusp of a big down-leg.
Month: February 2010
FAA and EEM, acronyms for airlines and emerging markets.
Airlines, have a capital structure that almost guarantees that at some point they will go bankrupt, and, if insanity is defined as doing something again and again in the expectation that the result will be different , only the insane would continue to own FAA. The case for the emerging markets is only marginally less compelling. Here are the charts.
No analysis here, just a reminder how good things can be, for a while.
If it is all Greek to you. Feb 2010
Greece is a great country and the Greeks have a certain “savoir vivre” (for Canadians lacking the French part of the equation that means , roughly, “understanding of life”). They are passionate about their affaires ( only a Greek like Aristotle Onassis would have the guts, or grace, to pick up a Kennedy), hate their enemies equally ferociously ,particularly the Turks , but love throwing plates around the place as I learned in the Plaka while trying to escape without eating the appropriate desert. Also it is the last country on the European mainland to tolerate a dictator (Papadopoulos) long after Franco and Tito were de facto gone. Despite all that the economy’s basic rules apply there too. Here is the chart (no less than a total return chart!) of the Athens stock exchange index.
You already would have lost 75% (remember total return!) at the recent low and now it looks like you are going there , and perhaps beyond, again. Of course Nana Mouskouri makes up for all that, but what is more worrisome is that the State of California is only 1% less profligate than these fellows and all they have , for the moment, is Schwarzenegger.
S&P Feb 2010.
This time I will use the S&P, not to create confusion but simple because it has the clearest pattern but they are essentially all the same for the Dow, the TSE and many others. Here it is;
The S&P is actually running behind the others in that it has retraced less but the message is the same. This up leg (for a good part due to the EEC doing nothing YET for Greece) has the potential to go a little higher using 3 different measures, but need not do so! At the latest the high should occur tomorrow morning perpendicularly above the apex. The level could be as high as 1087. The next move down, as a 3d wave, should be a little more dramatic than we have had so far. This prediction is rather precise so chances of being wrong are proportionally larger. So be it.