Month: January 2010

AGU Agrium,Jan. 21 ,2010 (also POT, MOS etc.)

Hamilton

AGU Jan21, 2010

AGU Jan 21, 2010 2

Agrium has, like Potash and Mosaic, performed outrageously well the last 5 years or so only to go into a very steep dive last year. At this point we do not know if the $115 high 0r the $30 low represents the “true” value if there is such a thing. What we do know is that a hell of a lot of Chinese people were fed more than 5 years ago and are fed today, so I am agnostic about the China factor. Also we know that the stock has rebound to the 50% level, the lower end of the normal range of 50 to 62%. What is also fairly clear at this moment is that the rebound was a very symmetric A-B-C, which though it may yet change, is a dead give away to step aside. A trade below $61 would initially confirm this outlook but rather than using a stop=loss I would simple sell allthree.

SBUX Jan 21, 2010 (see also Apr. 13, 2009 )

Hamilton

SBUX Jan21, 2010

Last year , April 13 we recommended this stock at about $12, frankly for no other reason than that it had beautiful EW patterns, doing exactly what it was supposed to do, that is break down to the 4th of previous degree and then rebound.  Then I suggested  $17 to $18 (always a minimum) and have not done anything with it. Again, in EW terms a 50-62% retracement is “normal”. We are approaching the upper end of that range and consequently would sell now or at the very least put a stop-loss just underneath its present value.

By the way, I still do not understand why so many people pay so much for so little, but that is beside the point.

TSE Jan 20, 2010

Hamilton

TSE Jan 20 2010

Last Monday’s (Jan. 11) high and immediate reversal may well have been the top. Despite already having lost 500 points since then, still remains to be seen if that was it If not than we have already created the necessary overlaps and one more brief push to a new high remains possible (BUT I DO NOT THINK SO).  Either way , from a risk/reward point of view it seems to be a much better bet to play the short side.

Interest rates again. Jan17 2010

Hamilton

ST louis fed 1

This never ceases to fascinate me. We all know that the governments around the world manage, manipulate, interfere etc etc depending where you come from, in one way or another. This may or may not be happening in the stock market but it is definitely and overtly happening with interest rates. In fact this is the main instrument given to the Fed in 1913 at its creation to avoid the panic of 1907 and other real and potential financial debacles. The Fed was created basically as a government form of JP Morgan and a few other players that were then the cartel. Today the Fed looks to be more neutral and influential and with the likes of Greenspan the view has taken hold that the Fed. can actually control interest rates. I do not think so, so get ready for 7% rates on the 10-year.