Year: 2009

TSE feb 3 update

Hamilton

tse feb3

Few times that I can remember has any market, bond, stock or whatever been so utterly un-volatile as the TSE. It is rotating around 8750 without any real resolution with respect to direction; soon it will have lasted 4 months, in fact by one measure it already has. These  tranquil episodes are consolidation ( continuation) phases and normally they are resolved in the  same direction as where they started, in this case down. Some might think that all this is base building and that therefore the next big move is up. Perhaps. From an EW point of view, given the overlap, it is possible but would still be counter-trend. Stick with the downside until proven wrong.

BBD.B Flying low?

Hamilton

bbd.b feb3

Bombardier must have read the book the way it is obliging. This one has a near perfect triangle formation for wave 4, alternating with wave 2 and extending beyond the boundaries of the channel lines as is normal. Now it crashes as it should as everybody is downgrading it. A bit odd when you think about it as this company is, without a doubt, the infrastructure company par excellence. Low margin business to be sure but trains will be needed more and more.

    The triangle measures $3 to $3.5 so a reasonable target to the downside would be $2.25 , give or take a quarter. Once there it should rebound and return to the apex for a double, at least. This is not simple a double or nothing bet as the return to the apex occurs almost always so it is a high confidence situation. Good luck.

DAX Feb2 update.

Hamilton

 

dax feb2

Update.    The Dax  is usually pretty clear. It rose to 8000 in 2000, dropped to a little over 2000 in 2003 and then climbed back up to 8000, double topping there and now we are in the second (or C) down-leg. As C waves are always made up of 5 individual waves, 3 down and 2 up, this is what we would expect to see. Also the C waves are, more often than not, larger than the A waves to which they are related. So far none of this has happened! Ergo either we missed something, or we are not done yet ( perhaps not by a long shot). Waves 1,2 and 3 are relatively clear, then 4 gets messy. It is not unequivocally clear where 3 ends and 4 begins, nor is it clear what form 4 is  taking. But it is clear that there is no 5th wave and we are also not even near a logical target at 4258 right now.

TCK.B Teck Cominco Feb2.

Hamilton

tck.b feb 2

A little while ago I was itching to buy Teck, not only do I love tech stocks but  it had dropped so much that it was only $3 plus away from oblivion and I asked myself at what point does value become deep value? Of course this is all academic if you, or your broker , ignored the warning signs given by not two, but 3 tops at the lofty $52 level. On second thought, looking at this chart, I am not at all convinced that it is a buy. It is very clearly not a 5-wave down so far so more should be coming down the road. Of course at $5 there is not much to lose. Even so it could still be 100%.