Year: 2009

TSE Feb 19

Hamilton

TSE feb 19

We have to be very careful here, the biggest mistakes are always made after you have been right for a while. It is possible that we are in a bigger and longer corrective pattern. Technically no wave within a triangle should be a 5-wave affaire. There is one here (after the A-B-C up), and this worries me as it suggests that perhaps this all is just a B down to be followed by a C up to higher levels. action on WMT worries me as well. C could go to 10200 or so. At this point I am not embracing this possibility but it should be given serious consideration.

RY Feb 19

Hamilton

ry feb 19

I will go out on a limb on the Royal Bank, it is a buy at $26 or so. That just happens to be a precise 50% from the top at about $62. This is a trading recommendation, not a “buy and hold”. Ultimately the stock can go to about $10 but that is just too ridiculous to contemplate at this point. In the meantime a rebound of 20-30% is reasonable. good luck

CAT Feb 18

Hamilton

cat feb 18

Here is Cat again. This one together with J Deere and Cummings were all predictable basket cases close to the tops. Now the bottom may be closer than the top. Cat has completed, almost completed a fairly clear 5-waves down. If 5 is to equal 1, a normal event, then it should travel about $20 and therefore should end at about $26. An extension cannot be excluded but given the target of about $47 the risk/reward equation fovours the long side soon. DE and CMI, Cummings are in slightly different positions but should also have upward potential soon.

CWB, Canadian Western Bank, where they boast that they finance anything that is yellow and burns diesel, a corresponding uptick might be in the cards soon. The stock is down 62% from $32 to about $11 and appears to be trying to retest the previous low.

MFC Feb 17

Hamilton

mfc feb 17

One look at the lawn on the Bloor street head-office tells you that this company thinks in a very clean and organized manner. Everything is properly compartmentalized  ( I worked for them briefly) and consequently things can be a little rigid. When they came out a few years ago with the “income plus” product, which product safeguards the buyer against the markets wicked fluctuations, the question was who carries the risk.  Of course there was no risk as statistically it can be proven that there never was or will be a 10-year period during which stocks did not return at least 5%, that is until this latest black swan showed up and now it is clear that they are self- insured but then 10 years have not passed yet! With about 17 billion of this stuff on the books the stock gets hit twice on the way down. On the other side this also applies on the way up. IMO this should be bought at between $14 and $12 or lower , with a target of $24 or so.