WMT Feb 20 (by special request)

WMT feb 19

WMT is on its way to $42 for starters, where the triangle has its base. After that it should implode as it catches up with the S&P index’.

wmt feb 19 2  This is the 5 wave up, the triangle is , of course the 4th, the 5th is a failure like most of us as we get older, it did not make a new high but it did meet its life script, almost as if mother-in-law is watching. This one is going to do the usual 50-62% retracement.

WMT feb 20 3

At least to $42 but potentially a lot lower, for instance if we are looking at a 1-2, 1-2 situation.

Stay short, the best is yet to come.

BMO , RY Feb 19 again

Another look at the banks can be informative. First I have made it rather well known that I was VERY bearish on the banks, way too early perhaps as I have held this view for at least 3 years now, if not longer. Here is why;

RY bc feb19

RY big c feb 19

First of all the stock is up in (arguable) 5-waves, increasing the tangent with each new leg up suggesting a bubble of sorts  that would require a large correction any time. Normally to the 4th wave of previous degree that could be at $23 to $14. This move, as with all the banks does not correlate to the growth in population or any other metric that would justify it. Also it far exceeds all the “other” stocks as shown in the lower chart overlaying the TSX, which itself did pretty well but was outperformed by about 1500% from the base in ‘74.

Looking at BMO things are a little clearer as the position of the 4th wave is less ambiguous.

BMO BC Feb 19 The target here is $21, if we go that far.

BMO CM Feb 19

BMO feb 19

CM feb 19

Speaking of banks, BMO has about the best ratio between high and present price, Commerce is not far behind both at about 33/34% . RY is at 50% so on that metric less attractive if you assume all will some day again trade at the same price, which is true today with 3 of them at about $26.  I think we are at a point where missing the boat is a greater risk than not getting on board. All of these have the potential to rise $20 or so in the next few months so a little nibling is probably a good idea. GE is also a bank!