Year: 2009

Unemployment

Hamilton

According to Shadow Stats the unemployment rate is presently about 18%, this is after the adjustments that have made by the BLS (Bureau of Labor Stats.) over the past ten years or so. Discouraged , or under- employed people are simple ignored under the new methodology leading to significantly lower numbers than would otherwise be the case. This applies to other “stats” like inflation, money supply etc.etc. Considering , moreover ,that at 2-3% of the population, the US has by far the highest proportion of their citizens behind bars, somewhere in the order of 10x as much as other civilized countries. As this costs more then sending them to Harvard the cost to the overall economy from unemployment and incarcerations is considerable. The unemployment rate at the peak of the depression was 25%, so on the positive side we are not that far off.

Unemployment

IBM Feb 27

Hamilton

IBM feb 27

A month ago to the day I posted IBM as a sell, showing both the big picture and the more detailed one. The stock was at $94 and ripe to top out (to retrieve previous stuff just put the ticker in the search engine at the top) which it did a few dollars higher. The pattern from $70 to $97 is VERY clearly corrective implying that some day we should be trading at a new low. Time to step aside if not already done.

TSE and capped financial sub index.

Hamilton

TSE Capped fin sub index Feb 27 The TSE financial sub index suggests that some temporary low may have been put in a few days ago, we erased all gains after 2003. After making a very nice , and rare, expanding triangle 4th wave. Click on chart to enlarge!

TSE long feb 27 The TSE itself is not quite at it’s logical target. The wave 4 on the way up is at about 6000 (this is the 2003 low). The lower point of the “box” at 61.8% down would work out to about 5750, but this is a little too low as it assumes the entire multi year up move started from 0, which is obviously not the case.

PEY.UN Feb 27

Hamilton

PEY.un

This one is perhaps nicer than PD, it comes from $35, earns 20% and trades at a P/E of 3.7, all of which is meaningless if not for the chart. We have a nice triangle, that may or may not actually be one but nevertheless has that shape and consequently will have some of the same properties. Not sure if the last leg might not need one more small low- the RSI (relative strength indicator) suggests not. Buy it anywhere here and a move to $10-11 is pretty certain