We have waited a long time for this one to get to $7-$6 and it just will not do it . If you look very closely it could be complete, hard to say, in any case should go up $5 to $ 10 in next big rally. A better choice night be the S&P HSU, same thing but on the S&P and a lot cheaper. It should have an additional little down, but enough on that. It is denominated in Can $$$ so no currency risk.
Top one is the S&P and the one below the DAX. Clearly both show a 5 wave decline so anyone who has the time should be a buyer but for a perfectionist the question, again, is are we there yet. In the S&P, see red lines, there could have been a triangle and then, and then only, we could have finished the whole process. Looking at the DAX the triangle would be so distorted that I very much doubt that there ever was one, which leaves us with an incomplete 5th wave. When will we know? If S&P goes through 800 we are probable in a fair sized rally, should we break 666 we will get to about 630 and THEN start our rally. This applies to the index as a whole, not sub groups.
The top one is where we are today, the bottom one the prediction a little more than a week ago. As you can see we may only have completed wave 4 and there could be one more move up (down for S&P as this is the inverse). If you were to insert a triangle it is possible that it is done (there would just be a quick thrust to create the double top). However a drop below 80 will tell us that the game is over for the time being. These instruments are worth monitoring as they are canaries in coalmines in that they burn the candle on both ends. Also, psychologically using the inverse is “easier†to read for most participants that, like Pavlov dogs, are accustomed to the “from the bottom left to the upper right†type of chart.
As stated a few days ago, we expect at least an a-b-c up, either as a correction ( a bull correction in a bear market) or we are witnessing a real bull market that will continue beyond where c=a. The problem is we do not know so it is better to get out and wait for the next train. Same for GE that hit $9.78. Assuming it was bought between 8 and 7, for an average of 7.50 your return is about 30%( where you should sell) On RY the buy (second time) was at $26 so the return would have been 34%, but since we sell at 30% that is all there is. Idem ditto for C.