Recommended on March 18th, when it was slightly less than $2,48. Probably already more than 30% but who cares, this one is going higher yet. Cuban cigars anyone??? Now soon you can have a green-card AND travel to the last bastion of the evil empire; guys like Kevin O’Leary should take note. Just to give you an idea how long this nonsense has been going on, more than forty-five years ago a rum and coke was known ,vernacularly, as a Cuba Libre , on the other side of the pond.
Sometime back in October 9 ( before this blog) of last year I put out a view that GS would trade back to $160. I was not at all sure that I should myself believe that but that is precisely the nature of having a method. In the meantime we are closing in on that target even though I would not stick around for more then one single cent beyond $140 (overlap, depending on count). So why are these guys so hot? Typically we call it “inside informationâ€, it helps when the treasury guy comes from your shop having made a few Bln’s for himself shorting the mortgage market that un till recently he was supposed to save. Wait a few years and GS will revert back from a bank to an broker dealer. There are no principles here other than make as much as possible no matter at who’s expense., otherwise known as the survival of the fittest. Unfortunately fitness has absolutely nothing to do with it.
By the way, this is a standard a-b-c if we do go to $160, otherwise another wave down could occur provide we do not exceed $140.
This stock is completely out of phase with the rest of the market as it’s decline started at least a full year before the market in general. It is also a little late in the game but IMO there is room enough to the upside left to make it worthwhile. Here are the charts.
Or with a little more detail;
Talk about “regression to the mean†and then some. This one went right back to the inflection point (wave 4) and often that is enough for the time being. A move back to about $17-$18 is a very reasonable expectation. I must confess that I do not understand why people pay so much for coffee, but that does not stop me believing that they will continue to do so.
Since Feb 27 we recommended stepping aside to see where it would go. Clearly it is making the correction larger than before and is going for the 61.8% retracement level at about $106
I realize that Bill Carrigan likes the stock, as per the Star report d.d. April 11 titled “Shares of multinationals offer profit, protectionâ€. I do not understand where from he draws that conclusion as the stock lost 50% in 3-4 months, hardly blue chip behavior. In the article he also refers to one of the 4 bears, as in the “Night with the Bears†as a “lunatic fringe†presumable for believing in the Kondratiev long-wave cycle. Which, by the way, was first discovered in 1913 by Jacob van Gelderen , a very sane Dutchman.