Unfortunately I cannot make head or tail out of this one. I may all be academic anyway at <$1. The stock will either survive and you will triple your money or it follows Abitibi Bowater and you will lose it all. E-wave tells me nothing at this point other than that it could trade sideways for a while yet. Sorry!
They are not all entirely comparable but they all carry the same message. We are at a very important juncture and for that reason it is prudent to step aside. Unlike most brokers I believe that there is a red light ,a green light and an amber (or yellow ) light. The biggest mistake made is that of inaction! The market has been very bullish, up 24% or so and in some individual cases a lot more so I think this could be the halfway point and we take away a good part of the gains. Time will tell but the pattern, a flat wave (4?) occurs in all markets and should be followed by a dive, perhaps to new lows but we will see how it unfolds if it does. The bull case could just continue but in light of the evidence this is an amber light. Here are the charts.
Remember, you can click on them to enlarge, also you can move them across your screen so you have two or more side by side.
Here is March 12.
As stated then we did not know if we would get 5 or 3 waves up, therefore at $35-$36 it was time to get out (rather many sure deals than a few bad ones). Now we know, it is 5-waves up which means that after an intermission ( b or 2) we should get another 5-waves to complete the move. This is what it might look like.
As it did follow the 5-wave track rather precisely I would now expect a pull back of about 61% to about $33 once it has reached about $42 /$44 or so. This is micro-managing the stocks future and should be taken with a good doses of caution and lots of salt. Ultimately the stock could trade back up to $44/$48 which at the moment seems crazy but we should remember that most of the negative stuff applicable to the US does not apply here. This is an oligopolistic backwater where banks are far less entrepreneurial,we do not have liar loans, mortgages without recourse and or the same degree of securitization. What we do have is the license to gouge provided by our central bank’s interest rate policy. Most other banks do not look as positive, in fact NA looks more like a 3-wave correction. It might also be a good trade to buy, say the Bank of Commerce and sell the Royal. Below is 2 –year chart.
Sell 1.2 shares of RY @ $41 for each share of CM bought @ $51 and then wait.
As a stock Southern Copper has one of the emotionally highest intensity displays of what otherwise should be a very sobering Phd. in economics. This one is particularly interesting to E-wavers simple because of the present CRITICAL position the stock has. Clearly we have waves 1 through 4 done, except that 4 is probably NOT complete. Though only a guideline (all this is empirical ,of course) wave 4 should not overlap wave 1 which would occur if the stock were to trade above $22.50 (about $1.25 away from where we are!).Moreover it is highly unusual that waves 2 ( a zig-zag) should be followed in wave by wave 4 (also a zig-zag, so far!). This is unusual as more often than not the two alternate. ergo I believe wave 4 may just develop into a triangle and what we see so far is only wave a of the triangle. Wave b should drop at least to $12.50 so there are $7 to the downside and $1 to the upside. 7 to 1 is a tradable proposition provided your broker knows how to use stop-loss orders. Options are an alternative. Think of all copper stocks, like TCK.B etc.etc.
By the way, copper , the stuff with the Phd. more or less confirms this view, see below.
