I was late to recognize this one, it was around $5.75 and halfway I suggested it might well go above $9. The stock has reached that level and some and eventhough the ultimate target is still much higher I would step aside at this level. We may have completed a 5-wave move up from the second low and both the MACD and the RSI are at very high levels from which they can only fall. Nothing wrong with a 60% profit.
The possibility of a triangle is certainly very valid, see blue triangle above. However as it projects to below $4 this may just be too severe for a stock that is already earning 15+% and is generelly targetted to levels around $7 or above. The alternative might be what is shown in purple or pink, a simple a-b-c. Long term that is not good but short-term it allows the stock to rise from these levels sooner than in the other scenario. In both cases we should go to $7.50 or so.
Somewhere here we could have a big reversal. However the market is extraordinarily persistent so tread carefully. We are not quite in the “box”.
Relentlessly this one is going to 85, at which time it will have lost almost 40 points in a relatively short period of time when the Fed was supposed to be bying the longer maturities. At some point this will feed into the mortgage markets.