PCU Southern Copper Corporation , April 14

PCU April14

As a stock Southern Copper has one of the emotionally  highest intensity displays of what otherwise should be a very sobering Phd. in economics. This one is particularly interesting to E-wavers simple because of the present CRITICAL position the stock has. Clearly we have waves 1 through 4 done, except that 4 is probably NOT complete. Though only a guideline (all this is empirical ,of course) wave 4 should not overlap wave 1 which would occur if the stock were to trade above $22.50 (about $1.25 away from where we are!).Moreover it is highly unusual that waves 2 ( a zig-zag) should be followed in wave by wave 4 (also a zig-zag, so far!). This is unusual as more often than not the two alternate. ergo I believe wave 4 may just develop into a triangle and what we see so far is only wave a of the triangle. Wave b should drop at least to $12.50 so there are $7 to the downside and $1 to the upside. 7 to 1 is a tradable proposition provided your broker knows how to use stop-loss orders. Options are an alternative. Think of all copper stocks, like TCK.B etc.etc.

By the way, copper , the stuff with the Phd. more or less confirms this view, see below.

Copper

S Sherritt , April 14

S April 14

Recommended on March 18th, when it was slightly less than $2,48. Probably already more than 30% but who cares, this one is going higher yet. Cuban cigars anyone??? Now  soon you can have a green-card AND travel to the last bastion of the evil empire; guys like Kevin O’Leary should take note. Just to give you an idea how long this nonsense has been going on, more than forty-five years ago a rum and coke was known ,vernacularly, as a Cuba Libre , on the other side of the pond.

GS Goldman Sucks, now a bank April 14

GS

Sometime back in October  9 ( before this blog) of last year I put out a view that GS would trade back to $160. I was not at all sure that I should myself believe that but that is precisely the nature of having a method. In the meantime we are closing in on that target even though I would not stick around for more then one single cent beyond $140 (overlap, depending on count). So why are these guys so hot? Typically we call it “inside information”, it helps when the treasury guy comes from your shop having made a few Bln’s for himself shorting the mortgage market that un till recently he was supposed to save. Wait a few years and GS will revert back from a bank to an broker dealer. There are no principles here other than make as much as possible no matter at who’s expense., otherwise known as the survival of the fittest. Unfortunately  fitness has absolutely nothing to do with it.

By the way, this is a standard a-b-c if we do go to $160, otherwise another wave down could occur provide we do not exceed $140.

SBUX Starbucks April 13

This stock is completely out of phase with the rest of the market as it’s decline started at least a full year before the market in general. It is also a little late in the game but IMO there is room enough to the upside left to make it worthwhile.  Here are the charts.

SBUX april 13 2

Or with a little more detail;

SBUX april 13

Talk about “regression to the mean” and then some. This one went right back to the inflection point (wave 4) and often that is enough for the time being. A move back to about $17-$18 is a very reasonable expectation. I must confess that I do not understand why people pay so much for coffee, but that does not stop me believing that they will continue to do so.