Month: April 2009

S Sherritt March 16

Hamilton

S march16

Sherritt has doubled since it was recommended about one month ago ( basically on fundamentals and the e-wave count). I think it will go higher yet as the word is barely out and the count seems to suggest higher prices yet  ($8+?). Still I would tend to sell as we already exceeded the arbitrary 30% set for “accounting” purposes. One has to make one’s own rules as alpha can be extracted from the market in many different ways; by being brilliant which is hard to maintain for extended periods , or by being disciplined , which is equally hard but easier if your IQ does not allow the former. Personally I have lost every time that I  did lose by not being disciplined.

UFS April 16 Domtar by special request!

Hamilton

UFS March 16

Unfortunately I cannot make head or tail out of this one. I may all be academic anyway at <$1. The stock will either survive and you will triple your money or it follows Abitibi Bowater and you will lose it all. E-wave tells me nothing  at this point other than that it could trade sideways for a while yet. Sorry!

S&P , DAX , Nikkei and TSE April 16

Hamilton

They are not all entirely comparable but they all carry the same message. We are at a very important juncture and for that reason it is prudent to step aside. Unlike most brokers I believe that there is a red light ,a green light and an amber (or yellow ) light. The biggest mistake made is that of inaction! The market has been very bullish, up 24% or so and in some individual cases a lot more so I think this could be the halfway point and we take away a good part of the gains. Time will tell but the pattern, a flat wave (4?) occurs in all markets and should be followed by a dive, perhaps to new lows but we will see how it unfolds if it does. The bull case could just continue but in light of the evidence this is an amber light. Here are the charts.

S&P April 16

DAX April 16

Nikkei April 16

TSE April 16

Remember, you can click on them to enlarge, also you can move them across your screen so you have two or more side by side.

RY April 14, continued from March 12

Hamilton

Here is March 12.

RY March 12

As stated then we did not know if we would get 5 or 3 waves up, therefore at $35-$36 it was time to get out (rather many sure deals than a few bad ones). Now we know, it is 5-waves up which means that after an intermission ( b or 2) we should get another 5-waves to complete the move. This is what it might look like.

RY April 14

As it did follow the 5-wave track rather precisely I would now expect a pull back of about 61% to about $33 once it has reached about $42 /$44 or so. This is micro-managing the stocks future  and should be taken with a good doses of caution and lots of salt. Ultimately the stock could trade back up to $44/$48 which at the moment seems crazy but we should remember that most of  the negative stuff applicable to the US does not apply here. This is an oligopolistic backwater where banks are far less entrepreneurial,we do not have liar loans, mortgages without recourse and or the same degree of securitization. What we do have is the license to gouge provided by our central bank’s interest rate policy. Most other banks do not look as positive, in fact NA looks more like a 3-wave correction. It might also be a good trade to buy, say the Bank of Commerce and sell the Royal. Below is 2 –year chart.

RY CM pil 14

Sell 1.2 shares of RY @ $41 for each share of CM  bought @ $51 and then wait.