K Kinross April 26, why you should NEVER, EVER buy it

Nobody seems to know where gold and/or gold stocks are going. Personally I think somewhere in the neighborhood of $650 for the stuff would be a potential low, despite an environment that would have suggested gold at at least $2000 to $3000 already. Who knows but what we do know is that buying Kinross is eminently foolish by any rational standard. The reason is very simple, if gold stocks are going to go up why buy an inferior product, go for the warrants, they expire in 2013 beyond anybodies timeframe for this slump and have a strike price around $11 or so , if my memory serves me well. Here is the story (works for Yamaha YRI as well).

Kinross april 26

Kinross warrants b april 26

Notice that Kinross, the stock double tops at about $24, after hitting a low of $10. The warrants go from $5 to $1 and do not manage a double top (time decay, comparable to tooth decay except that you do not give your money to the dentist, you just lose it). Both the stock and the warrants appear (for the moment) to have completed a-b-c corrections (which does not jive with $650 gold!), so suppose they are now a buy. You would buy the warrant no questions asked. This is like a long option, a leap as we used to call them, well in the money and, provided you like gold NOW or in the near future, a much better buy than the stock. Of course if you do not like gold, you shouldn’t buy either one.

I cannot find the correct strike price on this system, also this is the b warrant, there is also a c so take care should you buy this.

HXU April 25 The opposite to HXD

HXU April 25

And here to finish it off is the HXU. We hoped to buy it at about 7 and then sell it at around 14, neither points were reached so we missed the boat (basically for not understanding the non-linear nature of these products). The idea was good, execution not so good.

HXD April 25

It is always nice to have an opinion on the market , but without an instrument to act it is of little use. So here is our old favorite HXD (do not forget 2X leverage and not good in a non trending market).

HXD April 25

When in doubt look at the inverse. Lovely a-b-c, ready to move up any moment. Here C is a 5-wave affaire, better even it has a 5th wedge to finish it in the next few days if not already. Most positions were sold at about $34, too early as it turns out but still profitable. Here is a second chance.