I have been dead wrong on this one, premature would be a better word, having predicted a rise to the top of this pattern ( around $9.50) many months ago (prior to the existence of this website). This is and was , in my opinion , an expanding diagonal triangle. They occur when the market has gone too far too fast and normally (read always) retrace right back to the top – and do so quite violently. My error was in thinking the pattern was complete when it was not. The mistake is not that extraordinary considering that the 5th wave in this pattern frequently falls short of the trend line, occasionally breaching it.
In the mean time these guys have 23 bln in cash, are buying their debt back at 30cents on the dollar and are not beholding to the government. Perhaps they will be the only one of the three standing when all this is over, imagine the upside potential! Below is the model.
