Month: March 2009

RY out at $35, GE out at $9.75, C at $1.65

Hamilton

RY March 12

As stated a few days ago, we expect  at least  an a-b-c up, either as a correction ( a bull correction in a bear market) or we are witnessing a real bull market that will continue beyond where c=a. The problem is we do not know so it is better to get out and wait for the next train. Same for GE that hit $9.78. Assuming it was bought between 8 and 7, for an average of 7.50 your return is about 30%( where you should sell) On RY the buy (second time) was at $26 so the return would have been 34%, but since we sell at 30% that is all there is. Idem ditto for C.

YLO.UN March 12

Hamilton

Money at about a 20% return doubles in about 3.5 years (rule of 72). This is, give or take , what the Yellow Pages income trust returns as a distribution ;  slightly above a dollar and the price is roughly at $5. It was sold in desperation as BCE needed money to buy out Bell South. The hedge fund and pension fund that bought it just about tripled its money when this one got “income trusted” as an IPO. I am not fond of buying anything that someone else just made a killing on as probable there is nothing left on the table. This is now different as it already dropped from 17 to 5. Here is the chart.

YLO.UN March 12

It has flirted with the $5 level a few times and briefly went through it. But for parking your money this is not a bad proposition. Were it to continue dropping at the same rate (a ridiculous scenario) you would still be ahead of T-bills.

ylo

IVN March 12

Hamilton

Ivanhoe March 12

Ivanhoe, a huge copper  mother lode in the middle of nowhere in China, “discovered “ by the same fellow that did Voisey Bay. It is already well off the lows. Here is what it may do; Eli Lilly did this back in 2000.

LLY

If it does it again, it will be a double. Wait for a pullback before taking the dive. Use options to limit risk.

By the way, you should be out of GE and RY.

SWC March 12 , Stillwater.

Hamilton

stillwater 2

Stillwater has been a great trading stock. The Russians own it, it is situated in the Montana mountains, they dig up platinum and they are certified green, that is they do not make a habit of pouring arsenic into the local rivers. Platinum is a precious metal but for some reason has never gotten on women’s radar screen even though it is more expensive than gold. It is an industrial metal used to make catalytic convertors for the exhaust systems for cars (think green). Now we know that the car industry is going to hell in a hand basket but that is really only here in N-America, the Chinese just bought more cars than the Americans! Convertors are also used in woodstoves and other such “burn”devices.

Here is the detail;

Stillwater

Last time I bought some at $8 thinking the low was in (it was not but I always aim for 2 chances). This time we know the low had a $2 handle so we wont be making that big an error. What is attractive is that the first leg up from the low is an unmistakable 5 –wave affaire. It is then retraced almost 100% in a second wave so now we should get 3 or at least C.