Month: February 2009

Nikkei Feb 26.

Hamilton

There appears some confusion as to where we probable are in the wave counts. To try to clarify all this, as best as I can ,  here is the Nikkei which, at least to this point is clear. Here it is.

Nikkei Feb 26

There are 4 possibilities, all pointing down.

The most bullish for the next few weeks would be the one in red, an A-B-C. We just recently completed the B leg and are on our way to do the C. This one is not very elegant and we require a few adjustments at the top.

Exact same idea but much shorter in time (in green) an a-b-c flat as above  followed by wave 5 down. This last leg is already well developed as it is about halfway down.

The 3d possibility, in light blue is the moat elegant. We are in a triangle, just embarked on wave c up, d and e to follow. This is the most “acceptable” interpretation as it fits wave wave 2 and the alternation guideline. Also it explains breaking the trend channel to the right as this is exactly what triangles commonly do.

The 4th possibility, not shown , is that we are in a downward pointing wedge and are in the first or second downward leg, see below on “Are we there yet”or Telus.

All these possibilities apply in different ways to the different markets, the TSE, S&P etc. etc.

There is no credible bullish count that I can find, without resorting to that deus ex machina , the failure, the structure just is not there to support that notion. Remember that what may apply to an index does not necessarily apply to an individual stock.

DAX again feb 25

Hamilton

DAX feb25

A quick thought on the DAX. Notice that all movement in 2009 looks like a .B wave, it is an a-b-c in which the c and a legs are about vector equal. So if it looks like a duck , quacks like one etc maybe it is. We will keep an eye on this canary bird as it is a very good precursor of what awaits the market overall. Look also at EWN, the Dutch EFT back at the $10 level. For the moment all this means little as the wave can still develop further but lets not lose sight of it.

Note wave 1 could be one spot higher up.  Waves 1 and 4 would both be about 5 months.

T Telus technical analysis=/ EW Febr 25

Hamilton

Telus feb 25

Here is Telus again. It may have completed the ride down but it did not yet reach our original target of $30 ($31.25 was yesterday’s low). That low was obtained by looking at the pattern and/or structure of the decline, i.e. pure EW which is concerned primarily with the psychology. Overlay that with a little technical analysis, of which, I at least , do not claim to know much, one will notice that the bottom line has been touched precisely four times. As we know the chance of having 2 points on a line is 100%, 3 or 4, 1 in a million, so clearly someone is looking at that line. Maybe we should too and buy at $30 when and if it gets there a 5th or 6th time. Upside from there is to $44 minimum. Remember the bottom may already be in if all those watching that line got impatient!

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Are we there yet?? DJI and TSE ——————– MFC is done.

Hamilton

Today’s action was pretty good and very close or even at buying points for a number of stocks, like the banks, Manulife, Ge etc. So are we there ? Not sure, as I mentioned you run the risk of missing the boat, but then again you may get a better deal.

Tse feb 24

Starting with the TSE it looks like we are NOT there yet. Typically in time the low occurs straight under the triangle apex, which means we have another week or two to go. Secondly it is short in size. Typically a 5th is equal to wave one (green) AND the triangle itself measures a greater distance (blue). Also there is barely a discernable  structure, let alone a 5-wave one.

INDU feb 24

The DOW also is a little stunted at this point. The normal distance, (blue arrow) has not happened yet and as there is no triangle here the 5th wave so far is an a-b-c which is incomplete. Either a d-e should be added over the next little while or we might actually be in a diagonal, that is a wedge that needs another week or two. Time will tell. Manulife , of course, is done with a low of 12.25 today at the lower end of the 14/12 suggested range.