PD.UN Feb 4 update , are we there yet?

pdfeb4

Here is Precision Drilling again. May just be getting there. I saw this young lady on BBN talk about it and  even though I do very much respect her professionalism , I marveled  at her opinion that they have a few issues  (as in too much hay on the fork)  while at the same time suggesting that if you “rode it down” and lost most of your money in the process, you may want to stick with it today, as it will probable go up some day. Well, that day may just be NOW @ $5 or below.

TSE feb 3 update

tse feb3

Few times that I can remember has any market, bond, stock or whatever been so utterly un-volatile as the TSE. It is rotating around 8750 without any real resolution with respect to direction; soon it will have lasted 4 months, in fact by one measure it already has. These  tranquil episodes are consolidation ( continuation) phases and normally they are resolved in the  same direction as where they started, in this case down. Some might think that all this is base building and that therefore the next big move is up. Perhaps. From an EW point of view, given the overlap, it is possible but would still be counter-trend. Stick with the downside until proven wrong.

BBD.B Flying low?

bbd.b feb3

Bombardier must have read the book the way it is obliging. This one has a near perfect triangle formation for wave 4, alternating with wave 2 and extending beyond the boundaries of the channel lines as is normal. Now it crashes as it should as everybody is downgrading it. A bit odd when you think about it as this company is, without a doubt, the infrastructure company par excellence. Low margin business to be sure but trains will be needed more and more.

    The triangle measures $3 to $3.5 so a reasonable target to the downside would be $2.25 , give or take a quarter. Once there it should rebound and return to the apex for a double, at least. This is not simple a double or nothing bet as the return to the apex occurs almost always so it is a high confidence situation. Good luck.

DAX Feb2 update.

 

dax feb2

Update.    The Dax  is usually pretty clear. It rose to 8000 in 2000, dropped to a little over 2000 in 2003 and then climbed back up to 8000, double topping there and now we are in the second (or C) down-leg. As C waves are always made up of 5 individual waves, 3 down and 2 up, this is what we would expect to see. Also the C waves are, more often than not, larger than the A waves to which they are related. So far none of this has happened! Ergo either we missed something, or we are not done yet ( perhaps not by a long shot). Waves 1,2 and 3 are relatively clear, then 4 gets messy. It is not unequivocally clear where 3 ends and 4 begins, nor is it clear what form 4 is  taking. But it is clear that there is no 5th wave and we are also not even near a logical target at 4258 right now.