Month: February 2009

RIM

Hamilton

rim feb 10

We are going to forget about this stock, it has done what was expected and now it is in no mans land. If the count as shown is correct it could be on it’s way to $30 ( this is most probable considering that wave 3 with the gap more or less in the middle  and the 5th diagonal is fairly certain), ergo we have 5 down to go. Alternatively, and this is less likely , the upward correction is only halfway, this is a up, we are in b and c is still to follow. I think that makes very little sense. We are out , of course , and staying that way.

PFE Feb. 10 (see previous outlook) update

Hamilton

pfe feb10

As per our Feb2 0utlook the stock is dropping and is now in the $13 area. The blue line is the target and is just under $13 level, also it has done 5 waves. However, given the overall market position, which looks like it is falling in the elusive 5th wave, this could go a dollar or so  deeper than that. Both RSI and MACD support this point as being a low within this time-frame.

HXU , XIU Feb. 8

Hamilton

Just in case the triangle scenario in the TSE is correct we should get prepared to play, not imminently but in say a month.(by the way, this applies to the S&P as well). What you want to do is buy at the low and ,with the near certainty that you will return at least to the apex ,chose the highest beta instrument to get the best bet for the buck. Ignoring options as not everyone can play, that is the HXU. Horizons Betapro Tse Up, 2x leveraged, as this thing is non-linear and path dependent it is a little tricky to figure out what the low would be. For this the XIU ,the non leveraged version, is pretty straightforward.

xiu feb 8 Wave 1 is about 3 points and the triangle measures about 4, so on average 3.5 points, and as we closed near 14 that gets us to 10/11 or a drop of about 25%. Applied to the XHU, double of course gives 50%.

xhu jan8 As the last  high trade was at $11.58, lets call it $12, that would give us $6 as the low point to buy. As it will return to say $11, not $11.58, as these things behave in an asymmetric way you have a risk /reward potential of 80% with 100% confidence, it may go a lot higher. It may be a good idea to put your order in in advance, as if and when we get there,  you may lack the courage or conviction to pull the trigger. Also this could be wrong, so watch it progress over the next few weeks, you can always take the order out, no harm done by missing the boat.

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