Month: February 2009

MFC Feb 17

Hamilton

mfc feb 17

One look at the lawn on the Bloor street head-office tells you that this company thinks in a very clean and organized manner. Everything is properly compartmentalized  ( I worked for them briefly) and consequently things can be a little rigid. When they came out a few years ago with the “income plus” product, which product safeguards the buyer against the markets wicked fluctuations, the question was who carries the risk.  Of course there was no risk as statistically it can be proven that there never was or will be a 10-year period during which stocks did not return at least 5%, that is until this latest black swan showed up and now it is clear that they are self- insured but then 10 years have not passed yet! With about 17 billion of this stuff on the books the stock gets hit twice on the way down. On the other side this also applies on the way up. IMO this should be bought at between $14 and $12 or lower , with a target of $24 or so.

TSE Feb 17 (written 11th.)

Hamilton

TSE feb 11

The action today was wild but consistent with the triangle idea, now more than 4 months old but also with the alternative that may fit the S&P slightly better. Either way we should start our serious decent soon as we only have 3 weeks plus left to get to about 6500 (still above the 2003 low!) Lets see what happens in the next few days. The last two or three days we did a first little leg down that was corrected late in the day, perhaps tomorrow with the holidays etc. the market will want to be flat and we could see a little more downside.

AGU Agrium Feb 10

Hamilton

Fertilizer stocks have an enormous effect on the imagination of the  minds of analysts. There is no limit how high they cannot go and the logic is simple; you know that China and India are working themselves up the food chain and , given the numbers,  there will soon be a shortage. Malthus had figured this out about 200 years ago even though he came to a different conclusion. In the mean time we have had the bird droppings shortage on the islands off Chili to contend with  and other precursors  to this imminent shortage. Problem is the chart is not cooperating.

agu feb1o

The low, at about $30 was made some time ago and since then we have seen the stock work it’s way back up to where it is now. It could easily go a little higher, like $55 before it comes to a halt, but IMO it is time soon to get out as the stock needs another leg down to complete the pattern. this is true also for POT and MOS. The risk/reward is no longer there,

AXP American Express Feb 10

Hamilton

axpfeb10

AXP has been a great stock to play and once again it is approaching a point where it may get interesting. Depending how you slice it, the real support is at around $10-$5, it should not go through that or it will go off the board.

axpfeb10 2

It is still far away from that level but it is making a wedge like structure that is comparable to what we had on RIM recently. For the moment do nothing but if it holds $14 it may zoom up to $22. We will keep an eye on it.