S&P index (again)

sp

Another look at the S&P index. I view the move from 1576 to about 1250 as a first wave, which s then retraced in wave 2 by about 2/3 to 1440. Then wave 3 takes it down to 741, alternatively wave 3 is not even finished! Either way a return to 1000 is reasonable regardless of this being a 4 of 3 or a 4 of the whole move. The lack of alternation actually favours the idea that this is only 4 of 3. Who cares, the main point is that the whole thing is incomplete(by the way , the triangle notion offered earlier sort of combines both alternatives in a fairly elegant package). Assuming that this 4th stops at about 1000 then look for 5 to more or less equal 1 at 250/300  taking it down to at least match the old low and perhaps exceed it. However care should be taken as in the big picture an a-b-c correction since 2000 could be construed as complete! Do not think so.

spxbig

This would be unlikely as the C is nearly always larger, and often much larger, than the A. I remember back in ’92 forecasting an S&P to 500 , at the time it was 400, the only response I received was ridicule even if constructive, so perhaps 600is not out of the question.

Bell Canada Enterprises BCE

bce1

This is BCE over a number of years, looks like a big “flat”, an a-b-c structure having almost equal a and c legs. However the c should be 5-waves and it is not!

bce3

The first leg down is a fairly rare diagonal type 2, with all the associated overlaps etc., to $31.41, then wave 2  back to $38.65.From there the crash all the way to $20.94 is wave 3 (one of 3 is barely visible whereas 4 of 3 is a very clear a-b-c to $27.57. We should or could return to that level to make a fourth wave but after that a fifth should follow to new lows. This is the ultimate in pulling yourself up by your bootstrips so it is surprising that so many are surprised.

Bombardier BBD.B

bombardier2

 

 

This is interseting as it looks to have completed a first leg up, 5-waves followed by a rather deep wave 2 down to $3.50 or so, or about 61% from 9 t0 3,50.Possible this is telling us that infrastructure is the next best place to be as a wave 3 up could follow.bombardier1